GPS Sensors now Allow Earthquake Prediction?
GPS Sensors earthquakes can be detect early. However, some researchers believe that it may not be possible to predict the final earthquake every time. The topic of early prediction of earthquakes has long been discuss at the global level in traditional media and social media. Now, two French scientists have concluded the debate by revealing that with the help of highly sensitive GPS sensors, it will be possible to predict an earthquake two hours before it strikes.
Dutch Researcher Frank Hogerbeets
The debate on the early prediction of earthquakes began with the prediction of Dutch researcher Frank Hogerbeets. He had predicted an earthquake of magnitude more than 6 in the Chaman fault zone in Balochistan. A few days later, a severe earthquake occurred in Afghanistan’s Herat province, located about 800 kilometers from Chaman, which caused widespread destruction.
Hogwarts Prediction Unacceptable
Geologists around the world believe that the Hogar Bates prediction does not meet scientific standards and is considered more probable than the prediction because it does not contain clear information about the location and time. Two French geophysicists, Quentin Blatrey, and Jean-Mathieu Noquet, concluded this debate by revealing that with the help of highly sensitive GPS sensors, it would be possible to predict earthquakes by examining the movements of tectonic plates two hours before an earthquake. The research of these researchers associated with the University of Cote d’Azur, France, was published this month in the prestigious journal Science.
What is the Background to the New Research?
Quentin Blatrey, a geophysicist at the University of Côte d’Azur, told Deutsche Welle that to better understand his research, it is important to know the underlying mechanism of earthquakes. They explain that earthquakes occur when two blocks of the Earth’s uppermost layer, or crust, become locked along a fault line. According to Blatrey, this creates an intense tension between the blocks that lasts until they slide back into a normal state. Geologists have found after long research that this sliding process takes place slowly, gradually increasing in speed and intensity.
The problem, says Quentin Blattery, is that signs of such early signals have mostly observe for individual earthquakes. They never find a signal that could apply to all earthquakes.
Research by French Scientists
Blettrey explains that he, along with geodesist Jean-Matthew Noquet, a co-author of the study, put a lot of thought into it and then collected data from 90 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than seven around the world. For which help was taken from GPS stations locate near the epicenter.
These GPS stations record geologic movements with an accuracy of millimeters every five minutes, Bletary explains. By analyzing this data, they got the information that the geological movement intensifies about 48 hours before the earthquake. 3000 geologic movements were also note in several places 48 hours before the big shock of the earthquake.
Blattrey and Noquet compiled a time series, showing an increase in geological activity in the first 46 hours. But two hours before the earthquake, the rise was extraordinary. Blattrey explains that it appeared as if the fault lines were sliding in a central location before the big shock.
Highly Sensitive GPS Sensors
To further confirm this, the two researchers examined 100,000 such time windows of ground motions occurring on normal days, which found that the proportion of abnormal motions in this interval was 0.03 percent. From this, they concluded that if highly sensitive GPS sensors are available, which can accurately detect the geologic movement down to the millimeter scale, it will be possible to predict earthquakes in the last two hours.
Is this Technique Feasible?
Paul Siegel, a geophysicist at Stanford University, says that this is very interesting and surprising research. But it must now go through the rigorous stages of scrutiny. They say that often before a big earthquake there are some small tremors, but not every time. So, the data collect from GPS still needs to further test. Qadir Qureshi is a well-known researcher in science, he is also known as the encyclopedia of science. He is one of the founders of Pakistan’s largest science forum “Science World” on social media. Speaking to Deutsche Welle, he said that scientists can process the big data obtained from GPS with the help of artificial intelligence to develop a method that will lead to early and reliable prediction of earthquakes.
Qadir Qureshi said that although there is still not much data. In the light of which accurate earthquake prediction is possible. They believe that these French scientists are very enthusiastic. To continue their research and will develop highly sensitive. And effective GPS sensors in the near future. Further research will done by installing these sensors in central fault zones. Which will enable accurate early earthquake prediction.
Catastrophic Failure of Rock Formations
“This is probably a ray of hope towards earthquake prediction,” he adds. But we have to keep in mind that earthquakes. Are cause by a catastrophic failure of rock formations several miles deep in the earth. Identification movements can note.
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